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Speculators, known as miners, use powerful computers to solve complex software problems and verify transactions to unlock new bitcoins. They're finding that the enterprise isn't as profitable as it once was.
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Are speculative bubbles good for the economy? With much of the developed world still suffering the after-effects of the great housing and credit bubble, it might sound like a trick question. On Friday, however, at the annual conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, which is taking place in Toronto, I moderated a session during which several panelists suggested that bubbles can have an important upside: they help finance innovation and growth.
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Economist Nouriel Roubini is warning that 11 countries are showing indications of potential housing bubbles – an alarming prospect for the global economy, which is still recovering from the aftereffects of burst housing bubbles in the United States and elsewhere. He identifies another six countries in which major urban areas may have housing bubbles.
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One of the first historically recorded speculative bubbles happened with tulip bulbs in the Netherlands in the 1630s, when intense speculation caused an investor mania for the flower. Eventually, this mania drove the price of certain tulip bulbs to over ten times what a skilled artisan or craftsman might expect to earn over the course of a full year.
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Yermack looks at the historical trading behavior of Bitcoin and compares it other currencies. What he finds is that bitcoin is incredibly volatile and its exchange rate movements have no correlation with other currencies. The virtual currency's inherent stability makes it impossible to use it as a store of value. For this reason, Yermack concludes that bitcoin looks more like a speculative vehicle than a real currency.
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It has been a great year for stocks, but T. Rowe Price’s U.S. equity chief warns that investors shouldn’t expect a repeat in 2014.
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In recent weeks, some Bitcoin critics have been rethinking their initial Bitcoin skepticism. But others are as convinced as ever that the cryptocurrency is doomed. One of the harshest critics is Mark Williams, who teaches finance at the Boston University School of Management. He predicts that in the first half of 2014, bitcoins will lose almost 99 percent of their value, falling below $10. We spoke by phone on Monday. The transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
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The price of Bitcoin fell below $900 at the end of last week. In the week before that it rose to $1200. A month ago it was $300. Trying to explain why this is happening with any semblance of rationality is a fool’s errand.
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Curated by jean lievens
Economist, specialized in political economy and peer-to-peer dynamics; core member of the P2P Foundation
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